Additionally, they are episodes remote enough that we can observe their longer-term consequences across many centuries. This is because the main plague epidemics are to be counted among the worst mortality crises in recorded history and had a large and relatively easy-to-observe impact. The history of plague offers particularly interesting opportunities for reflecting upon the very nature of pandemic shocks. There is a distinct possibility that, exactly as the direct demographic impact of Covid-19 has proven uneven, also its consequences on economy and society will be uneven. As the consequences of pandemics are potentially deep and persistent and cannot be confidently foretold, collective solutions to the crisis and policies which aim at solidarity, both within countries – for example between regions – and internationally, constitute the rational choice for risk-averse governments, and are highly advisableĪlthough Covid-19 is still spreading quickly in many world areas, across Europe, where a progressive re-opening is taking place, the attention is shifting towards the aftermath of the crisis and the possible long-lasting economic damage that it will have caused.A lesson from history which does, however, apply to Covid-19 is that the final economic (and social) consequences of pandemics depend upon the initial conditions and are very difficult and maybe impossible to foretell.Despite its devastating immediate effects in fact the fourteenth-century Black Death had mostly positive consequences in the long run, for example by reducing inequality – but this did not happen on the occasion of later plagues, and there is no reason to believe that Covid-19 might reduce inequality (quite the opposite).However, as these consequences depend to a large degree upon mortality rates (the percentage of the overall population dying), we must be careful when drawing comparisons with Covid-19. The history of plague shows that severe pandemics can deeply affect economies, and that their consequences can be persistent and be felt for centuries.
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